As I write these lines on August 22, it seems the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed in June 2026 has broken down completely. In Lebanon, the termination of Israeli bombing and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the south as the MOU required did not occur. The Trump administration declared a designated route through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, and Iran fired upon ships taking that path. Trump responded with a new 13-day bombing campaign.
Reports are circulating that the U.S. is running out of the anti-missile weapons designed to neutralize Iran’s missiles, which were used with great effect against U.S. and Israeli targets during the initial fighting in March and early April 2026. The supply has been drained by the war in this region as well as by the proxy war being fought by the U.S.-NATO empire over Ukraine. When the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, Iran retaliated. It seems the Trump administration believed Iran would give up after about six weeks.
Iran did not surrender. Instead, it met each blow with an effective counterattack, putting Trump in a bind. Panicked by the failure to capitulate, in June the administration signed the MOU, seeming to agree to many of Iran’s demands. Trump soon reneged on the agreement, launching a new bombing campaign, and shooting incidents continue in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Trump declared an all-out economic war or an economic D-Day. Faced with such threats, Iran hints that if the war isn’t ended soon along the lines of the MOU, it may take the initiative in hitting U.S.-Israeli targets, depriving Trump of the ability to turn the war on and off according to his wishes and needs.